Miami Commercial Real Estate Q4 2025 Market Update
Executive Summary
Miami’s commercial real estate market in Q4 2025 continues to show strength with nuance. Industrial remains resilient, retail thrives in high-traffic corridors, and multifamily demand is steady but segmented between luxury oversupply and workforce housing demand.
Macroeconomic & Regulatory Landscape
Florida’s economy continues to outperform national averages, though growth is moderating.
The commercial rent tax repeal (effective Oct 1, 2025) has boosted NOI for leased assets.
Migration keeps fueling housing and service demand, particularly in trade, hospitality, and healthcare sectors.
Industrial Sector Insights
Miami industrial remains one of the top performing sectors:
Vacancy is stable but rising slightly due to speculative construction.
Class-A logistics near the airport and seaport command record rents.
Older industrial product is losing competitiveness to newer facilities.
Submarkets:
Doral Industrial → strong absorption, institutional interest.
Medley Industrial → bulk distribution hub.
Hialeah Industrial → tight infill inventory.
Retail Sector Performance
Retail continues its rebound with tourism + lifestyle retail leading demand:
Prime corridors (Lincoln Road, Brickell, Wynwood) remain at near-full occupancy.
Experiential retail + F&B drive leasing momentum.
Outdated mall product struggles unless repositioned.
Submarkets:
Miami Beach Retail → global flagship demand.
Wynwood Retail → experiential + arts retail.
Brickell Retail → luxury & finance-driven tenants.
Multifamily Trends & Pipeline
Multifamily is split:
Luxury high-rises: Edgewater & Brickell facing rent concessions with supply surge.
Workforce housing: Little Havana & Allapattah enjoy tight occupancy, consistent rent growth.
Pipeline: ~25,000 units under construction across Miami-Dade, concentrated in luxury sectors.
Submarkets:
Edgewater Multifamily → oversupply risk.
Brickell Multifamily → institutional interest remains strong.
Little Havana Multifamily → cash-flow + value-add.
Allapattah Multifamily → emerging redevelopment.
Investment & Sales Activity
Sales volumes are up in multifamily + select industrial; retail trades are selective.
Cap rates:
Core assets (Brickell/Edgewater luxury) = 3.75–4.25%.
Workforce multifamily (Little Havana/Allapattah) = 5–6%.
Investors focus on location, lease quality, and post-tax repeal NOI gains.
Outlook & What to Watch Into 2026
Rent tax repeal = long-term bullish for CRE valuations.
Industrial remains Miami’s safest CRE sector.
Retail success depends on tourism + experiential leasing.
Workforce housing → outperforming luxury rental towers.
Financing costs remain key headwind.
Implications for VIVA Clients
Owners: Now is a strong time to reposition and capture higher NOI from tax changes.
Investors: Look west to Allapattah and Little Havana for yield.
Tenants: Use increased luxury rental supply to negotiate concessions.
Data Appendix & Sources
GREA Market Insights Summer 2025 (grea.com)
Cushman & Wakefield Miami MarketBeat Q2–Q4 2025 (cushmanwakefield.com)
Florida CRE Market Mid-2025 — Walter Duke + Partners (walterduke.com)
Conclusion
Q4 2025 confirms Miami’s CRE market is resilient but maturing. The opportunities are real — but so are the risks if you ignore submarket dynamics. At VIVA Capital Realty, we guide investors and owners with the precision to capture upside and protect downside.
Contact Us for a customized CRE market report tailored to your property or submarket.
